Max loss
premium
Buy calls and puts on prediction-market event contracts. Pay a fixed premium, see your payoff profile before you commit, and never get liquidated. Cash-settled at expiry, before the underlying event resolves.
Back Spain at a spot price of 0.16 with $100. The instrument you choose decides your ceiling, your floor, and whether a single goal can end your position before the thesis plays out.
| Instrument | Capital at risk | Max payoff | Max return | Liquidation | Settles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot contract (1×) | $100 | $625 | 6.3× | n/a | at resolution |
| Margin long (3×) | $100 | $1,675 | 16.8× | yes, any swing | at resolution |
| LevM call (OTM) | $100 | $1,732 | 17.3× | none | cash @ expiry |
Leverage can be liquidated by a single swing. The LevM call caps your loss at the premium, fixes the payoff structure at quote time, and can't be closed out from under you: the one column none of the others can fill.
| Back a longshot: at-the-money call, $100 premium illustrative · demo model | Spot prob | Premium | Max payoff | Max return |
|---|
The LevM vault makes a two-sided market as your first counterparty, so there's always a firm bid and ask. You can also trade P2P with other users.
Buy or sell calls and puts on any prediction-market event with market or limit orders. Transparent payoff, loss capped at premium.
Discrete strike/expiry grids. The vault quotes both sides as first counterparty; peers fill the rest, and you can sell what you hold.
Deposit USDC into the vault that underwrites the desk and earns the realised edge.
Spreads and multi-leg payoffs. Define a shape, get one premium.
The vault contract polices the dangerous parts. The pricing brain runs off-chain, but it can only misprice within bounds the chain refuses to break.
Every option reserves its mathematical max payout: notional·(1−K) for calls, notional·K for puts. Across a sportsbook market, where exactly one nation can win, the vault reserves against a coherence worst-case bound that's a provable ceiling on total loss; either way it can never owe more than it holds.
Window, venues and method are fixed and hashed into each option at sale, settlementSpecHash. No discretion to mark in our own favour after the fact.
At expiry the settlement price is a short median of Polymarket's price around the timestamp, fetched and posted on-chain by a keeper inside a hard sanity band, so anyone can recompute it from public data. Bonded, disputable settlement is on the roadmap.
LP funds sit in an ERC-4626 vault on Polygon. Only whitelisted settlement logic moves money; the team can pause, never withdraw.
An options orderbook on prediction-market event contracts. Buy or sell calls and puts over any event market with market or limit orders. The LevM vault is your first counterparty. It quotes both sides and hedges its exposure on Polymarket. You hold a cash-settled option on the market's price and never take a Polymarket position yourself; only the vault hedges there. USDC depositors back the vault and earn a share of the desk's edge.
Spot ties up full capital and caps your upside at $1 a share. A perp gives leverage but can liquidate you on a single sharp move. A long option gives convex leverage with a known maximum payoff and a loss capped at the premium, and it cannot be liquidated, because there's no margin to call.
No. The most a long option can lose is the premium you paid up front. There is nothing further to post and no position in the underlying to maintain.
Options expire before the underlying event resolves and settle on the market's observed price, never the binary win/lose outcome. At expiry LevM reads the event contract's price on Polymarket over a ±n-minute window (a short median of the midpoint, so a single print can't be gamed), and a call pays that price minus your strike if positive (a put is the mirror). A keeper posts the mark on-chain so anyone can recompute it from public data; the method is fixed and published in advance, and bonded on-chain disputes are on the roadmap.
The LevM vault is your first counterparty. It quotes both sides of every market and takes the other side of your order. But there's also a live orderbook: you can trade peer-to-peer with other users, and sell options you hold either to a peer or back to the vault. Selling is covered only: you can't write naked, so there's never an unbacked short.
The vault earns the spread between fair value and the price the desk quotes, net of hedging cost and a protocol fee. Yield is variable and not guaranteed, and deposited capital is at risk. Liability per option is bounded and fully reserved, but the strategy can still lose money.
Polygon, denominated in USDC.
Derivatives on event contracts are restricted in many jurisdictions and may not be available to you. Availability is determined at the app. Nothing here is an offer where it isn't permitted.